Adapt and Survive

Since I started trading, I have traded everything from Gold and Silver, US Shares and UK Shares, FX, Indices, ETF’s, Commodities.

 

I have spread bet, traded binary options and bought and held stock.

 

None of what I traded I have ever physically seen.

 

Now I am holding/trading a digital currency that I will never feel in my hands.

That isn’t a concern

I am certain that digital currency will be standard in the not too distant future and that the term ‘Adapt and Survive’ should be heeded because a change is a surely coming.

 

From Gold to Paper

 Back in the 17th Century the Bank of England issued their first bank notes in exchange for gold deposits.

adapt and survive

This was a BIG change. Anyone with any wealth in those days were offered the chance to go into a bank with their hard earned gold and exchange it for a piece of paper.

 

As confusing as that undoubtedly was back in 1693 the trend obviously caught on. The people of those days adapted to paper money over time.

 

That to me seems like exactly what is happening now with Bitcoin and digital currency.

 

Adapt and Survive

 

Some of us are and have adapted already… most have not.

 

Many/most people are still saying, “what on earth is Bitcoin all about”? So I buy something with my paper money [fiat] that is worth X amount but I can’t see it???

 

As mentioned above, paper money was initially worth a certain amount of gold or silver but you didn’t see the gold or silver once you had your paper note.

 

Now you are buying a digital token with paper money. The transitions are very similar in reality.

 

As much as Bitcoin and Ether have risen in value, I think most people actually forget what it is… A Currency that you can actually spend. I always get the feeling that it is more likened to a stock or commodity that has risen in price. The fact is it is far more than that.

 

Gold Banned in The US

Adapt and buy bitcoin

US citizens were banned from owning Gold in the US in 1933. The ban was uplifted in 1974.

 

It lasted… but not for long in the grand scheme of things.

 

If the US or any other country tries to ban Bitcoin and or digital currency, I really don’t think it is going to last. In fact, I don’t see how it could work?

 

We are all going to need to adapt to survive into the future. That has always been the case. Why should it or will it be any different nowadays?

 

Of course certain countries are going to be against a decentralised digital currency like Bitcoin because they are losing control of what has always been controlled by them… fiat currency. Controlling the currency has meant control of the people.

 

But not anymore.

 

Bitcoin in the Press

 

Every correction and consolidation Bitcoin sees [that is totally normal] is labelled a crash in the press. But we all know, as the press do that price never rises in a straight line.

 

Yes, it must be tough if on traders if you have bought leveraged positions in Bitcoin… OUCH.

 

But for people looking after their own wealth, who have ETF’s or Bitcoins in their own personal wallets, it is just part of the overall package.  And most of us know we should take what the press say about Bitcoin with a pinch of salt.

 

If you are still on the fence with the whole digital currency thing, then at least do yourself a favour and get a wallet and start to learn about it and how to use it. Even if you are not looking at it from an investment point of view

 

Adapt and survive… or get left behind. The choice is yours

 

If you have already purchased some digital currency as an investment, then just hold tight.

 

“Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting.” Jessie Livermore

 

Here’s To a Healthy 2021

As any of you will know, if you have been reading my blog over the years, I always wish you well come Christmas.

 

I also give you an update of how my year went trading.

 

Last year was different. Entirely.

 

I thought it might be wise to avoid saying anything as so many people were struggling with the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

I know of people that had lost loved ones, lost businesses, and elderly that have lost their already limited social lives.

 

Peoples mental health has suffered too and that only seems to be getting worse.

 

Families have struggled to stay together and domestic violence has risen during lockdowns.

 

Others have lost their jobs and have limited opportunities to find more work.

 

Coronavirus has bought the world to its knees.

 

There’s nothing to say that you don’t know already.

 

So how could I say Happy Christmas not knowing what your personal lives had endured during the last year?

 

Wishing You All a Fantastic New Year

 

So before I move on… Can I Say… I hope this year provides you all with health and happiness and also the strength that you need to charge forward and reach your goals.

 

I’m sure things will be better this year for all of us.

 

My Trading Year

 

This was the first year in trading that I thought I might actually be down and in the red.

 

Most of the year found me clinging on to a very small profit made from Silver and Gold.

 

I wasn’t even sure if that was going to cover the losses from when I sold all my stocks in the sell off in March.

 

In hindsight, if I had held onto them [stocks], and knew that the good old USA was going to prop all my positions up, I’d have done OK again.

 

But here’s the uncanny thing.

 

If I hadn’t bailed out in March and closed most of my positions I held at Schwab, then I’d have not bought anywhere near the amount of Bitcoin that I did during the year. And I’d have not made as much profit as I have so far.

 

I used most of my funds from my Schwab account to invest in Bitcoin. I also used cash that I needed to put to work to buy the bitcoin tracker at HL early in the year before the bitcoin halving.

 

Buying Bitcoin saved the day for me. In fact, it gave me my most profitable year trading ever.

 

A good year trading is 20% profit. An amazing year trading is 30%+ Last year I made over 200%.

 

Some may say that I was lucky. But you have to have the belief and courage to invest your money when everyone else is telling you you’re mad.

 

I have said many times that I believe Bitcoin will reach $50,000. As I write this post, Bitcoin is trading just under $49,000.

 

I now believe $50,000 to $100,000+ will come over the course of 2021

 

 

Of course there will be many ups and downs trading Bitcoin over the coming decade. But I’m happy to ride this roller-coaster. In fact, Bitcoin is becoming less and less volatile and will continue to do so as more and bigger companies invest and Bitcoin payments become widely accepted.

 

Trading in 2021

 

Most of my focus will be on Bitcoin over the course of 2021. Unless something changes drastically.

 

Profitable trading is as simple as waiting.

 

There is little else I need to or can do other than wait at the moment.

 

I have also recently started buying Ethereum ETH too. I think that this could also be profitable over the coming year and that we will see it at over $3000 come December.

 

If you think that you are too late to invest in Bitcoin or even Ethereum, then I think you’re seriously missing the long term outlook. I think this is only the beginning of the new world currency. We have a long long way to go yet.

$1000 Invested 40 Years Ago

40 years ago, Ronald Reagan was elected president of the United States, the Rubiks Cube launched, Lennon was tragically shot to death in New York, the first Fax machines were available in Japan, The Shining had hit the cinemas and Apple’s IPO launched on this day 12/12/80.

$1000 invested 40 years ago

$1000 Invested 40 Years Ago

$1000 dollars invested 40 years ago in Apple in 1980 at the initial IPO [$3,160.05 in todays climate] Today you’d have $430,000 approximately.

 

Now you’d probably feel pretty smart, and rightly so, if you had made that sort of investment 40 years ago.

 

But the fact is, there’s not really anything that smart about it. All you had to do was wait.

 

Bitcoin might be even better than Apple

 

I have had quite a few emails asking if it’s too late to invest in Bitcoin? Should I spread bet it? Am I better off investing in other ALT Coins?

 

I don’t know is my honest answer, who does?

 

But what I do know is that I am prepared to hold bitcoin for at least the next 10 years if need be and I feel very confident that I will make a good profit by or within that time frame.

 

And I think that you still have the opportunity to start small and build up if you can just be patient and wait.

 

It’s Not a Straight Line Up

 

Over the next 10 years there’s going to be lots of movement in the price of Bitcoin. I imagine we’ll see many 20, 30% corrections and pullbacks as the price moves higher. But I do strongly believe that the price of Bitcoin will continue to move higher over the next decade.

 

Remember Then

$1000 40 years ago

The First Apple Computers

I started this post with some blasts from the past. But then, back in 1980, that was all new.

 

Everyone back in 1980 was saying stuff like, everything was going to be run by computers in the future, computers were where the money was going to be, the next world war was going to be run by computers…  Remember all that?

 

In a way, everyone back then was sort of right. But how many people from 1980 bought and still have their initial apple stock? Not many I doubt.

 

Apple shares? What’s that? You’ll lose your lot investing in anything like that.

 

PayPal

 

If you’re too young to remember the 80’s you’ll all know PayPal. But I remember when PayPal was new… and everyone was cautious and apprehensive about being able to send money by email. It must be a scam! That sounds dodgy! Don’t trust PayPal… how can it even work… Now look! It’s the norm.

 

One day in the near future, Bitcoin is going to be the norm too.

 

QE

 

I believe that with all the money printing pre and post Covid, [QE, quantitative easing] that people have to look for other safe havens for their money and that digital currency will offer just that.

 

This I believe will help fuel Bitcoin’s price over time. Add into that the inflation beating Bitcoin halving that happens every four years and I think that Bitcoin really could be the next Apple like investment. And it’s happening now.

 

In the Next 40 Years

 

In years to come I think $50,000 a bitcoin will look cheap.

 

Obviously I could be totally and utterly wrong about this, I could lose a lot of my money if Bitcoin fails, but that’s an investment and risk I’m willing to take. That’s how it is.

 

I’d rather have a go than look back and say if only.

 

If I Had to Choose – Why Bitcoin?

I had an email recently asking me if I had one trade I could make and hold over the next 10 years what is it that I’d buy?

It’s actually a really good question but one that is flawed too.

I’ll start by explaining the flaw.

I have never put all my eggs in one basket in trading.

Roughly speaking, out of 10 trades I’ll have maybe 4 losers or break evens, or very small losses. A couple may move in the right direction but not very much. The remaining tend to soar and make the gains.

Trading like this helps me balance my portfolio.

I have never just traded one market or sector.

 

If I had a Crystal ball

Why Bitcoin

 

However, if I had a crystal ball when I first mentioned Bitcoin almost 8 years ago [you could mine it yourself in those days and it was under £500 a coin] I’d have bought into Bitcoin with whatever I had and held it.

But even if you had bought bitcoin at $2000 when everyone said it wasn’t going any higher, you’d still be laughing today. So why not buy now? There is still plenty to come.

I stated way back that I think bitcoin will reach $50,000 a coin. And I do still believe that today. Many think it is going to go way higher.

And if you are buying bitcoin now at todays price, you could be in for one awesome ride up.

So in answer to the question, if I had to make only one trade and hold it for the next 10 years it has to be bitcoin.

 

Why Bitcoin?

For me, I have seen over the last year that the markets can be manipulated on even the largest of stages [The Dow]. Yes, I have still been trading during this year, but not like previous years. It has been a very quiet one for me, although still making a small profit overall.

Vince Stanzione advised not going to the party [trading too much] and I have done just that.

But through all of this year, it is bitcoin that has stood up to the onslaught without any market manipulation. Yes, it sold off like everything else at the start of the Coronavirus pandemic, but it bounced right back and showed strength.

For me bitcoin is a true buyers and sellers market, no outside manipulation is moving the price. Bitcoin is decentralised and can’t be censored or influenced. It just is what it is. That’s why Bitcoin stands out so much to me.

My own personal opinion of Bitcoin is also based on most of these points and have been way before this article was written.

I learnt a lot more about why Bitcoin will rise at Vince Stanzione’s Crypto Seminar back in 2017.

 

Bitcoin Tracker and Wallets

 

I have bought the bitcoin tracker at HL and I’m also buying Bitcion in stages Via BitPanda and Kraken.

I’ll either sell half of all my positions when the price reaches $50,000 and leave the rest in there, or I will sell half whenever my initial investment has doubled.

To me, I believe this strategy to be a safer and more sensible option than keeping funds in the bank, especially if we go into negative interest rates!

Small Spread Betting Bank

Can you make big gains with a small spread betting bank? How often have I heard that?

Well here’s the answer… yes you most certainly can, but it depends on what you trade, how you trade and you as a trader.

Obviously Rachel! But that doesn’t help?

Ok, let me explain.

Spread Betting Small Banks – What to Trade

The first thing that you have to understand is that you can’t go flying into everything that’s hot and short everything that’s not.

Margin [your deposit on each trade] will have a critical impact and limit how much you can trade and what size stake you can use when trading with a smaller bank.

As an example, using a £1500 bank to start spread betting some markets is totally viable. You could be using £.50-3 a point and be OK If you were trading, main currencies and indices, Metals and other Commodities whilst using a stop loss.  You will likely encounter margins of 10% and less at most of the big spread betting firms. These markets are often less volatile too.

In fact, with a bank of £1500, you can easily trade multiple markets and rank up some great profits quite quickly.

However, if you were planning to trade Crypto Currencies the margin can go to 50% and even higher. So using a small bank of say £1500 to start Crypto trading becomes a far less viable option.

You can read how margins are calculated HERE 

So, before you start trading, think about what you want to trade and if it is going to be viable with your trading bank and point size.

 

How You Trade a Small Spread Betting Bank

Are you planning on Day Trading or Swing trading? Short term or Medium term? Closing your trades daily or letting your profits run?

If you are looking at day trading, then your money will not be in the markets for very long. Depending on what strategy you are using, you can expect to be in the market for minutes or from market start to market closing times and anything in the middle.

Often these day trading strategies require fluid markets and they tend to be the most heavily traded markets with the smallest spreads and margins.

Also you’ll find these strategies require guaranteed stop losses for new traders and the trading style often limits you to trading one market once a day or one market several times a day. In either situation stakes and risks are limited as well as potential profits.

So, small spread betting banks can work well in these types of trades as margin and risk are usually easily aligned.

Medium Term Trading

Medium term trades, sometimes referred to as swing trading requires you to look at holding trades from a few days to weeks at a time. You could be trading a few different markets at once. You will be looking to close losing trades quickly and let winning trades run.

You can open daily spread bets and keep rolling over or take a longer term contract. If you lose on the longer term contract then you have paid a larger spread to open the trade in the first place so lose more than if you open a daily trade. However, you pay interest on your winning trades if you keep rolling over a daily trade. Either or, sometimes you just have to keep rolling over a trade if it kicks off in the right direction… although it can be slightly more costly in fees.

Also when trading medium term, you’ll want to have back up funds to add to your winning trades. This means not tying up your entire bank on one trade.

Your Attitude as a Trader

Are you scared to let profits run? Can you even do it? It rolls of tongue… “cut your losses short and let your profits run”. But not many can do it. In fact, a lot of traders do the opposite; they hold on to losing trades and cut the winners short.

But without a doubt if you can master the above mentioned art, then that is the fastest way to bigger profits and bank growth.

It is my favourite way to spread bet.

If using day trading strategies, you can still grow your bank well and steadily over time, but the journey may be a lot slower.

The overall art to winning at trading is accepting what type of trader you are and staying with it.

I have always preferred medium term trading over day trading.

Here are some results and profits that I made using a small spread betting bank of £1500

I chose to start with £1500 as it is an amount most people can get their hands on. You can start with less though. I have traders that started with £500.

I did have losing trades in this account when trying to add to silver and gold.

As you can see, I have more than doubled my initial investment over the last couple of months by just letting my profits run with a few simple trades that anyone can make.

Small spread betting bank

Of course these trades didn’t all just head straight into profit. At various times they were losing too.

The point here is to show you that you can make great returns with little trades.

So to recap…

Set aside some funds and decide what you are going to trade. Make sure your bank and markets are a realistic option.

Choose your strategy. Are you looking to nip in and out of the markets every day [day trading] or are you going to let your profits run and cut your losses short?

Once you have decided on the above, stick to it! Understanding what type of trader you are will pay dividends long term.

If you want to learn about some simple and FREE trading strategies you can use to get started in trading have a look here and here.

You can also get my online course HERE.

Don’t forget that I learnt how to trade with Vince Stanzione and still trade alongside him today. You can read more about his course here.

Health First – Fat Fiction

fat fiction

Some Food for thought in this post.

 

If you have read my blog for any amount of time, you’ll know that I like to try and stay fit and healthy.

 

You’ll also know that at one stage I was vegan and that I have not eaten meat since 2017.

 

My choices for this were because of the way that animals are being kept, the breeding and how they were slaughtered. I find it cruel and unacceptable.

 

It hasn’t been easy avoiding all meat products, nor has it been enjoyable.

 

My diet has been very high in carbohydrates. Something that it never was when I ate meat.

 

I know how crabs [carbohydrates] raise blood sugar and that we do not need carbs to survive.

 

However, I kept on with my high carb no meat diet in the name of empathy for animals.

 

Every Cloud…

 

Corona Virus has changed the world, but for each and everyone of us, the virus has given us our own stories; in a way much like WWll I imagine.

 

For me, the Corona Virus had the knock on effect of stopping me from going to the gym regularly, which led to me feeling unwell, gaining weight and re-evaluating my entire diet and eating plan.

 

After a lot of consideration, deliberation and psychological pain, I decided to eat meat again after all these years.

 

And do you know what? I have really started to feel so much better. In fact, I’m amazed at how eating meat again has improved my wellbeing in the last few weeks alone.

 

My mood has improved, my energy levels have increased, I have lost weight already, I’m happier, I’m getting more done and I am looking forward to my food again.

 

Also my blood sugars have dropped dramatically.

 

I have not eaten anything processed in the last three weeks and have not eaten any carbs.

 

My diet has been low carb and high fat and protein.

 

And I love it.

 

My meat has been mostly free range and organic.

 

I have had lots of veg but very little fruit. A few berries a day with some cream at most.

 

Am I a Hypocrite?

 

No I’m not at all. I’m still hugely interested and proactive in the welfare of animals. I realise that I do not need to be vegan or vegetarian to care. This has been very liberating for me.

 

You can read and listen about how Lierre Keith went from vegan to meat eater again and why here. It’s very interesting.

 

You can also learn about some of the reasons why I was finding being meat free detrimental to my health by watching a documentary I discovered. It really is an eye opener and it convinced me to reconsider my diet.

 

Fat Fiction

 

Even if you are already a meat eater, you can get something out of Fat Fiction. It really goes into detail about how we have been misled on what to eat over the last 50 years and what the cause of the obesity epidemic might actually be. It’s a fascinating film.

 

Whatever your current diet is, if you feel that something isn’t quite right with your health or that you are not getting the body from all the gym sessions and dieting that you have been doing, then there is a good chance that your diet may be to blame.

 

I was born in an era when saturated fat was labelled as the bad or even worst thing that you can possible have in your diet. Low fat and high carbs where the recommendations for eating healthy… that turns out to be the worst advice for our health that the health professionals could have given us.

 

The fact is that there was never any truth or scientific proof that saturated fat caused heart disease and that eating fat made you fat. It was a lie.

 

Fat Fiction could really open your eyes to what a healthy diet should consist of.

 

You are what you eat, remember that saying from years ago? What rubbish.

 

Staying Healthy

 

I think the Corona Virus has bought home to many of us how important it is to stay as healthy as possible. According to stats, many of the fatalities from the virus were those with underling health issues and obesity being one of the main culprits.

 

Personally, going Vegan and then Vegetarian hasn’t worked for me. It was no good for my health, mentally or physically.

 

I am happy to be eating meat again and happier to be becoming healthier than I have been over the last few years.

 

Think Vegan Think Again

 

One of the major flaws I have found with the whole vegetarian/vegan culture is that it makes you feel like you can’t care about the welfare of animals unless you are one of the above. This is ridiculous!

 

If vegan activists took the approach that anyone who eats meat should consider the welfare of the animal before slaughter, then I feel this may lead to a more effective approach to improving the lives of livestock overall.

 

Basically, if vegans and meat eaters both demand that animals are treated ethically, then the combined force will undoubtedly be far greater in getting a positive result.

 

Here’s a link to Fat fiction again. I really hope it helps some of you.

 

 

London Breakout Strategy Updated Results

Before I start this blog post, I’d just like to wish everyone well during this current Coronavirus pandemic.

 

There is nothing I can add to what has already been said and to what you have probably already read.

 

It is impossible to not be affected in some way. Everyone is making sacrifices in this difficult time.

 

Please stay safe and look after each other where possible.

 

My thoughts are often with the frontline workers… they all deserve a medal. God bless you all.

 

Trading Results from the London Breakout Strategy.

 

In my last post I shared with you some results I had compiled from testing the popular Morning Breakout Strategy or you may prefer the London breakout strategy as it is often called.

 

Over the last couple of months, I have kept the test going and have some more results to share.

 

February 2020 produced more profits.

 

There where a total of 10 trades with 3 losses.

 

This gave us a total of 372 points profit for the month and a strike rate of 70%

 

03-Feb-20 58 116
04-Feb-20
05-Feb-20 50 50
06-Feb-20 33 66
07-Feb-20
08-Feb-20
09-Feb-20
10-Feb-20 42 84
11-Feb-20
12-Feb-20
13-Feb-20 43 53
14-Feb-20
15-Feb-20
16-Feb-20
17-Feb-20 28 56
18-Feb-20
19-Feb-20
20-Feb-20 35 35
21-Feb-20 37 41
22-Feb-20
23-Feb-20
24-Feb-20
25-Feb-20 54 54
26-Feb-20
27-Feb-20 47 95
28-Feb-20
29-Feb-20
Total Points Won 511 139
Total Profit 372

 

 

Again this is a very respectable result and profit.

 

March 2020

 

March was a difficult month to find trades. The Coronavirus has caused huge volatility in the markets.

 

The GBP/USD has been seeing moves of 300+ points a day. This often meant that the breakout range was over our maximum points range of 60.

 

We did however have 3 trades that all won. This gave us a total of 294 points profit for the month and obviously 100% strike rate.

 

London Breakout Strategy Results March

 

 

 

The blue lines are the winning trades. The yellow lines are the no trades where the range was above 60 points.

London Breakout Strategy Full Results

 

As you can see, the results speak for themselves and over the 3-month test of the strategy we have managed to make a total of 1050 points profit.

 

That is a great result and an average of 35% added to our bank each month.

 

If results continue then you could build a nice size trading bank over the years with very little risk. Theoretically, you could double your bank roughly every 3 months.

 

Here’s a Compound Interest Calculator that you can download and use to give you an idea of what is possible.

 

Of course, these results are no indication of what you will gain in the future. Anything can happen and you will encounter losing months.

 

Losing Months

 

I actually had a look back to find a losing month, which I did in April 2019.

 

You can see the screenshot here. There were 18 trades with 3 winning and 15 losing giving a strike rate of just over 16%

 

I didn’t do the exact maths but if you had an average loss of 40 points and a win of 80 points then you’d have had a total loss for the month of 360 points.

 

You must realise that you can’t and wont win them all.

London Breakout Strategy losing streak 2019

 

The blue lines are the winning trades. The red lines are the losing trades and the yellow lines are the no trades where the range was above 60 points.

 

I am working on a strategy to trade alongside the London Breakout Strategy. This will help limit losses and increase profit over time and keep you trading the trend and larger moves. It’s looking very promising at present. I will keep you posted.

 

Stay Safe

 

Once again, please try and stay safe during the current Coronavirus situation. None of us are truly alone, we are all in this together and soon enough we will come out the other side.

 

 

Morning Breakout Strategy GBPUSD

I ran a test over January on the morning breakout strategy that is very popular… especially with new traders it seems.

 

When I googled the search term ‘Morning Breakout Strategy’, there was very little in the way of results but plenty of people offering advice on how to trade this popular strategy.

 

So I decided to put it to the test.

 

What is the Morning Breakout Strategy?

 

The morning breakout strategy is a strategy using the GBP/USD when the London session opens. It is not dissimilar to the DAX breakout strategy.

 

The idea is that the price of the pair tends to break the trading levels/zones of the previous few hours and then trends that way throughout the day.

 

Sounds simple right? Well actually it is… and that appealed to me.

 

The theory behind the morning breakout strategy is that you take the highest and lowest price point of the previous 2-3 hours of trading and draw a line at these levels. You then place a set and forget order at the Spread Bet Company that opens a trade and goes long when the high is broken and goes short when the low is broken.

 

You are basically drawing support and resistance levels for the last few hours of trading.

 

As the data regarding the strategy online seemed a bit vague, I tested the strategy using 15 minute candles and the previous price levels from 6am until 7.45 am.

 

I then also ran a parallel test using 1 hour candles using the price levels from 6am until 9am.

 

Here is a graph illustrating what I was doing.

 

morning breakout strategy

 

You can see that I have drawn a line at the highs and the low points on the 1-hour chart I did the same on and 15-minute chart.

 

The blue lines highlighted winning trades and the red lines losing trades or trades where I considered the stop loss was to big to open a trade.

 

My Rules Trading the Morning Breakout Strategy.

 

Once I had got my support and resistance levels in place, I’d set entry points 3 points above the highest high and 3 points below the lowest low of the previous few hours from 6 am.

 

So when I was testing the strategy using 15 minute candles, I was using the last 1 hour 45 minutes of price data [from 6am-7.45am] to draw my support and resistance levels.

 

When I was testing the strategy using the 1 hour candles I was using the previous 3 hours of price data to draw my levels. From 6am-9am.

 

Once this had been determined, I was looking to take 2 x my risk as profit. So 2/1. If I had a 30 point stop loss in place, I was trying to take profit of 60 points.

 

I also didn’t want my stop loss to be to big. Certainly no more than 60 points and the lower the better.

 

You then just need to log into your spread betting account and set up the trade. So you have 2 orders set to open. One long and the other short. You set your take profit level at double your risk [stop loss]

 

You also will need to cancel the other trade once either one has been triggered.

 

Results Trading the Morning Breakout

 

Here are the results of the morning breakout strategy in January 2020 using 15 minute candles and 1H.

 

 

15 Minute Candles

 

W/L Points Won Points Lost SL Date Running Total
02-Jan-20
03-Jan-20
W 68 34 06-Jan-20
L 27 27 07-Jan-20
L 34 34 08-Jan-20
W 60 30 09-Jan-20
L 30 30 10-Jan-20
128 91
31 31
BE 46 13-Jan-20
L 34 34 14-Jan-20
L 32 32 15-Jan-20
L 19 19 16-Jan-20
L 26 26 17-Jan-20
minus 80
L 31 31 20-Jan-20
L 26 26 21-Jan-20
28 28 22-Jan-20
28 28 23-Jan-20
minus 193
31 31 27-Jan-20
0 0 28-Jan-20
0 0 29-Jan-20
30 30 30-Jan-20
64 32 31-Jan-20 Minus 190
Total Profit 190 points loss

 

 

 

 

1 Hour Candles

 

1 hour chart SL Points Won Points Lost
02-Jan-20 30 60
03-Jan-20 48 48
06-Jan-20 47 95
07-Jan-20
08-Jan-20 57 114
09-Jan-20
10-Jan-20
13-Jan-20
14-Jan-20 40 80
15-Jan-20
16-Jan-20
17-Jan-20 30 30
20-Jan-20 27 27
21-Jan-20 30 60
22-Jan-20 33 33
23-Jan-20
27-Jan-20 32 32
28-Jan-20 57 0 0
29-Jan-20
30-Jan-20 42 84
31-Jan-20 54 61
Total Points Won 554 170
Total Profit 384

 

 

These results mean that using the 15 minute candles, we had 19 trades with 4 winning and 15 losing or break even, giving us a 21% strike rate and a loss of 190 points. That makes some seriously grim reading.

 

However, using the 1 hour candles we had 13 trades with 7 winning and 6 losing or break even. This gave us a respectable 53% strike rate and a profit of 384 points.

 

8-9am the Crucial Factor

 

When you run tests like this, the information that you can gain is amazing. We can clearly see that by using the price data until 9 am that we have managed to turn our 190 points loss using price data up until 7.45am into a profit of 384 points by holding on for an extra one hour and 15 minutes before drawing in our highs and lows.

 

This also means that the size candles that you use up until 9 am are not particularly relevant as long as they are under 1H.

 

Why I like the Morning Breakout Strategy

 

I actually really like this this strategy and think that it could be great for new traders.

 

It is very easy to see what you have to do.

 

Once you have found your price levels then you set the trades automatically and set profit targets all within your financial bookmaker like CMC or IG.

 

The risk reward is in your favour 2/1

 

There aren’t too many trades that it will drive you nuts.

 

You can start with a small bank

 

Trading times are easy enough to fit around working schedules.

 

Why I didn’t like the Strategy

 

The main reason that I didn’t like the strategy is that you will need to keep an eye on when you get a trade that opens as you will need to then cancel the one that wasn’t triggered.

 

That is easy enough to do though if you just set price level alerts on the chart using the IG platform. This way you’ll know when you should have an active trade in the market and when you’ll need to login and cancel the other one.

 

You do not want to have 2 orders in the market on the same pair when using this strategy.

 

Morning Breakout Strategy is a winner

 

Overall the strategy was certainly a winning strategy over the month of January using 1 hour candles with price data from 6am – 9am.

 

I’ll do some more testing over the coming months and update some more results come the last weeks trading in March.

Happy New Year

Happy new year

Wishing you all a happy and prosperous New Year… may I take this opportunity to thank everyone for their support over the last year and let’s hope that our trading results are at least as good as in 2019.

Where Next for Bitcoin?

where next for bitcoin

I have not traded Bitcoin for some time now. I find the lack of price history gives me the jitters. But where next for bitcoin?

looking at the daily chart, the trend to me appears to be down. But that doesn’t mean that the price can break out of the triangle to the up side.

If you use the price history for 2019, then the trend is clearly up.

This is obviously contradictory to the longer term price history.

That’s my issue with trading bitcoin at the moment. I just can’t seem to make an informed decision.

Where Next For Bitcoin

The daily charts seem to offer limited information when you are trying to analyse bitcoin… but you can always look at the different charts to see if you can get an edge.

If you really want to try and trade bitcoin, then don’t be afraid to experiment with 1H, 4H candles. If you can hack the pace, the false signals and the spreads then you could even drop down to the 15 min candles and back test.

Trading bitcoin and indeed anything else is all about what suits you and makes you as a trader successful. Some traders are happy to be in front of the screen for many hours a day. Others will make one trade a day. Some traders only make a few trades a month.

Find what suits and stick to it.

Other Opportunities

Whilst everyone is obsessed with trying to figure out what way bitcoin is likely to go, many other opportunities are going begging.

Seasonality Trading is always well worth looking at come October.

The good old currency markets still offer regular opportunities too.

The Dogs of the Dow is another great strategy that absolutely anyone can follow each January.

If you want faster profits, then some of the fastest and biggest gains can come from trading individual shares… especially shares from the US markets.

As a trader, it is your job to find winning trades.  They don’t just jump out at you spell trade me.

For every chart there is a strategy that will work. It’s down to you to employ the correct one.

If something isn’t doing what you expect it to, then take a step back and look at other opportunities.