When not to use a Moving Average

Moving averages are the most commonly used of all the technical indicators.


They have the uncanny ability to get you in and out of trades without trying to find tops and bottoms.


Moving Averages can identify long term trend direction.


They can be used to identify stop loss levels too.


However, with all their benefits, is there a time not to use moving averages?


In my opinion, yes.


This is not being detrimental to the moving average, but is actually a way to enhance the moving average signals overall.


Support and Resistance levels.


Support and resistance levels should form the basis of all your trading entry points.


Knowing if the price is approaching key S&R levels can save you many lost points.


If you have opened a trade unknowingly near these vital levels to see the price rebound in the opposite direction, you know what I mean.


When the price of whatever it is you are considering trading is approaching solid support or resistance levels then you need to tread carefully.


And it is at these levels that moving averages can give you false signals.


When Not to use a Moving Average


Have a look at this chart of the DOW. You can see that I am using a 10/20 EMA on the 4H candles.


You can see that I have drawn in what is a solid resistance level.


Now, you can also see that the there were crossover on the 16/05/19 and the 21/05/19 both signalling a long trade.

when not to use a moving average


However, if you had drawn in your resistance levels accurately then you’d never have really considered taking this trade on knowing that there was such a large possibility of the price rebounding back of the level.


If you wanted to use the crossover as a valid signal, then you’d have waited first to see if the price broke through the resistance level and then opened the trade.


You can see that from drawing in support and resistance levels, if a moving average crossover is signalled as the price approaches these levels then it is a clear time when not to use a moving average to enter a trade.


You will notice this occurrence often when trading, and not entering a crossover trade when the price is approaching support and resistance levels will save you many a losing trade.


Range Trading Moving Averages


One other time to ignore moving average signals can be when the price is trading within a range.


Again, you can easily find if a price is trading within a range by drawing support and resistance levels.


Look at this chart of the USDCAD you can see that the trend has been seems to be stuck in a range although moving slightly up.

no moving average


You can also see that there have been numerous buy and sell signals created by the moving average crossovers.


Some were most certainly winning trades, but many more losses. You could have used a swing trading approach for far better results than the moving average can offer in this instance.


Once again though, if you hadn’t drawn in S&R levels then you could be having a trading nightmare trying to find a winning trade using a moving average.

Drawing in the S&R levels alerts you to not take any action until the price had broken out to either the up or downside.


Simple Trading


Moving averages combined with support and resistance lines offer one of the simplest but most effective ways to start trading.


If you can add into that the times when not to use a moving average, then your points profit over time can be improved along with your trading confidence.


To Recap


Moving averages are an awesome indicator to get you in and out of trades.

However, they can become even more effective by avoiding the signals created when the price is nearing major support or resistance levels.


Setting Trading Goals

Trading Goals

If you are serious about making your trading pay, then you really should invest the time to make specific trading goals to reach your desired level of income.


Before I had ever read the book Goals by Brian Tracy I had always set specific goals for myself whenever I was trying to achieve a certain outcome.


I actually can’t remember reading about doing this [reaching goals] until much later in life. I was at least in my 30s. However, I had been writing out my goals since my teenage years.


My Trading Goals


When I first started learning about trading, I had a strict agenda. I had written goals. I was going to make an extra £1000 a month from spread betting the markets and I was going to blog about my experience.


The reason I was keen to blog about my trading was to ensure and prove to all that should I get ripped off on my trading journey, my readers will avoid the same mistake. Blogging was also a way to keep myself disciplined.


I achieved all my goals… and more.


Your Trading Goals


Your trading goals will be individual to you and your circumstances. However, here are some tips when writing them out.


Always start your goals with ‘I’ and stay present. So for an example…


I am a successful trader making £1000 a month from trading the financial markets


I am making £1000 a month from trading the financial markets


I am a disciplined and professional trader making £1000 every month from trading.


However you decide to write your goals, always remember that you want to start them with ‘I’


Repetition is Key


I also got into the habit of writing my main goal out 10 times every morning by hand.


This somehow really helped me stay focused. Months later when I was still writing them out, it dawned on me how close I was to actually achieving my goals.


It may sound like some sort of mumbo jumbo to you now, but that one little trick certainly helped my subconscious do the hard work for me. It feels like you are programming your mind directly.


On average it takes 66 days to form a habit. Keep on keeping on. Your goals will materialise but give everything you are trying a chance to work.


Visualise Whilst Meditating


If you have read the blog for any length of time, you’ll know that I’m a keen meditator. I have been meditating for years now.


I can now enter a very deep state of meditation after around 10 minutes.


It is in this state of deep meditation that I can give myself suggestions of my goals and visuals of me achieving my goals.


This is one of the most powerful self improvement tools you will ever use. It can be literally life changing. Plus, you get all the benefits of meditation whilst doing so.


I often meditate in complete stillness, but I also use this app and also some of Kelly Howells MP3s, they are awesome if you are looking for certain improvements like gaining positivity; but the deep meditation is amazing for programming your subconscious mind.


Tools for Living


Learning about how to write goals is an essential life tool for successful living.


Once mastered, you will be able to use the same process to achieve anything that you wish.


Seriously… the sky is not the limit… your mind is.


Here’s a link to the Goals book by Brian Tracey again and beneath you’ll find a video about how you can work towards goals and achieve more from life.


Remember… if you want to make a living from trading, set your trading goals.


Some of you may think goal setting is unnecessary… however, I assure you that most successful traders, entrepreneurs and business people all set goals. Why should you be any different?


What is the Best Moving Average to use

What is the best moving average to use?


In answer to that question, there are many. There is not one particular moving average (MA) that anyone could claim is the best.


But here we are going to focus on some of my favourites for long-term, medium-term and short-term trading.


We will be using the daily charts along with the 4H charts and the 5 Minute charts.


What type of Moving Average


I always use the exponential moving average with my trading (EMA). This is my preferred MA over the simple and weighted moving averages.


There is also now the VIDYA moving average that I’m growing quite fond of as it is offering new ways and opportunities to trade.


However here we will only be using and concentrating on the EMA.


200 day EMA Longer Term Trading


The 200 day EMA is probably one of the most commonly used of all the moving averages


It can be used singularly where you trade the price above the EMA or below the EMA.


It can also be used with other short term period EMA’s to create a reliable crossover system.


The 200 day EMA is also commonly used to identify the direction of a trend.


If you look at this chart of the daily DAX you can see that you could have easily traded the price above and below the 200 day EMA and made some healthy profits.


200 day moving average

As simple as it may seem that is a reliable trading strategy.


However, you can also add a smaller period moving average to create a very effective crossover strategy using the 200 day moving average.


200/5 Crossover Strategy


In this next chart you can see [although hard to] that I have added the 5 day EMA to the 200 moving average and have dropped down to use the 4H charts.

Each time the 5 EMA crosses the 200 EMA you open a trade and close the other.

Could have you any trading these crossovers? Of course you could have.

Moving average

As with any strategy, you will have losing trades, but over the long-term using sensible staking and reliable moving averages you will come out on top.


 Horses for courses


As mentioned in a previous post, for every chart there is a strategy and for every strategy there is a chart.  It is your job as a trader to match this strategy and charts together.


Do not think that one EMA setup will work for each and every chart and timeframe, that is just unrealistic.


Medium-term Moving Averages 20/50


One of my favourite and most reliable EMA setups to trade currency pairs with is the 20/50 using the daily charts.


What’s more is that there 20/50 EMA crossovers can be used on most of the major currency pairs and even a few of the minor repairs.


I will say this again…. it is your job as the trader to find which charts suit the strategies that you are trying to use.


For every chart there is a strategy and for every strategy there is a chart.


As you can see from the charts beneath, using the 20/50 moving average crossovers on the daily charts is wickedly effective.

Moving average


moving average system




Trading like this takes the stress out of opening and closing your positions as you just trade along to the signals that the crossovers generate.


Again you’ll find that you will have losing trades, but these will be easily offset against your winning trades over Long-term.  Remember trading is a marathon and not a Sprint



Short-term trading strategies using exponential moving averages


When using the shorter period moving averages, it is always better to use the smaller minute charts.  Here we will be looking at trading strategies using five-minute charts to trade the DAX and 10/20 Exponential moving average.


The upside to using small time frame charts and the 10/20 EMA is that they can be used on most charts currency pairs and indices.


Your stop loss levels will also be smaller.


The downside is that you will get far more false signals.


However, over time and again with sensible bank management you can create some decent points profits on a daily basis.


The idea of this these short-term type of EMA strategies is that you will be in and out the markets many times in a single day.


This most certainly suits some traders and not others as you will need to be at your PC most of the day.


Take a look at the chart beneath, you can see many crossovers and trading opportunities.  You’ll also see lots more false signals.



Moving averages are a great way to smooth out the price on a chart and give you a clear idea of direction of price.

Also you are getting the added benefit of signals [crossovers] telling you when to enter a trade.

If you are unsure about opening a trade and the direction on a chart, leave it. Do nothing. There will always be other, clearer opportunities once you learn to trade effectively.

Simple Trading – Creating Opportunities

I recently explained a simple trading rule to remember to my spread betting students.

Sometimes when you are trading, the daily charts may seem flat and untradeable.

There looks like there is nothing going on and opportunities seem scarce.

When this happens, don’t be afraid to drop down to using the 4 hour and 1 hour charts and even the 10 minute candles

You need to be able adapt your trading to make money consistently over time.

Let’s look at the chart beneath as our first example

spread betting course


You can see that the price looks pretty sideways on the daily chart. There appears to be little in the way of trading opportunities.

But if we drop the chart down to 10 minute candles let’s see what happens.

Rachel trader


We have now created much more volatility; this in turn gives us more opportunities to trade.

Now this approach won’t work if you are a lazy trader. And that’s fine if you do not want to be at your desk throughout the day. But for those that want to be a more active trader and building their banks quickly, then this approach can be perfect.

Simple Trading

If we add an exponential moving average to the chart and trade the crossovers, we can create a trading strategy that gives us our entry and exit points.

Look at the chart now. You can see that over the last couple of days there have been many opportunities available.

simple trading

In fact if you had traded each crossover signal from 8am – 8pm, you’d have netted some good points profit with very little in the way of risk.

Considering that the daily chart looked untradeable, you can see what happens if you change your trading approach to suit the chart.

You Can Diversify

Don’t get stuck in the rut of trading the same strategy that only works in some scenarios.

Diversify your charts and strategies and you’ll find you have far greater success overall.

Learn the basics well and you’ll find spread betting is rather simple.

Over time you’ll come to know what strategy works best on what time frame and more importantly what works best for your personal style of trading.


New Trading Strategy

New Trading Strategy

Here are the January 2019 results of my new trading strategy.

The blue arrows are winning trades with an average of 70 points profit.

The red arrows are losing trades with an average of 35 points loss.

This equates to around 665 points profit.

All trades were between 7 am – 7 pm

new trading Strategy

The system is for use on the DAX and gets you in and out the market quickly and safely by ensuring the odds are firmly stacked in your favour by 2/1.

I was going to offer this as a completely new system and charge for it. However, I decided to add it to the member’s area of my spread betting course.

Since I started testing and developing this strategy back in September last year, the strike rate and results have stayed consistent… and sensational.

You can start using this strategy with the smallest of banks and expect to see a steady return from month to month.

Another awesome thing about this little strategy is that you can set alerts to notify you of a trade. This means limited missed opportunities.

You also get up to 30 minutes after an alert to get the trade on.

You can Join me from Tuesday

Now, if you haven’t been able to join my sold out spread betting course… you’ll have the chance to get access from this Tuesday.

I’m going to let 30 new students in.

If you’re not on the waiting list then you might miss out again.

My spread betting course includes 6 awesome trading strategies and I also send you info on charts that look like they might be ripe to trade.

There are absolutely no other hidden fees once you join.

If you want to get access to my awesome new strategy shown above and all the other strategies too, make sure you join up this Tuesday.

To be on the safe side, make sure you’re on my mailing list as you’ll hear first the minute the doors are open.

If you want to learn how to trade in 2019 then you won’t go far wrong with my spread betting course.


Untethered Soul Review – Must Read Book

I want to share with you today a book that I have read a couple of times over the last year.

It has absolutely nothing to do with trading… but then again it could have everything to do with your results from trading.

Any of you that have read the blog for any amount of time will know that I am into my meditation and that I’m quite a spiritual soul.

I’m not religious in anyway though, but I do respect anyone that is. It’s just not my thing personally.

But whatever your life stance, the book I’m about to tell you about today really might open up some new pathways for you and take the pressure out of searching for success.

Untethered Soul Review

Untethered Soul ReviewI have waited until the beginning of the year to tell you about this book so that you could read it now and see how your life unfolds over the year.


Take a Step Back for a Moment… 

Have you ever stopped to listen to your own self talk?

If you have, then my hat is off to you.

If you haven’t then you’re probably in for a right shock.

We all do it from time to time, the moments when we realise we are prattling on to ourselves… but do you really analyse any of your self talk at all?

If you have or do, you’ll start to realise what an absolute beast our own minds can really be to us. That’s why i wanted to give you my Untethered Soul Review.

Think About This

Let’s say that we have made a bad trade, we have just closed our position for a 5% loss. Our self talk might sound something like this over the next minute or so…

I knew that was going to happen, should have bought the other course, this course is to advanced for me…I remember when I was dancing I knew the same… I’m hungry, what time is it now? I really don’t like that guy; she didn’t say hi to me either… I have to go get the kids… that trade was ridiculous, can only get better though… my legs are sore… what’s on TV tonight.

Sounds crazy doesn’t it. It almost is. But each and every thought leads to another and another and creates a different emotion within us.

The amount of time we spend talking to ourselves like this is unbelievable. For most people it is most of the day.

Some people will then go on and carry that bad trade from our example around with them all day.

This non stop thinking helps create more and more painful thoughts regarding the losing trade, but then creates more and more negative thoughts in general.

This type of thinking can easily lead to all sorts of stress… and it’s easy to see how.

Trading Can Be Stressful

Trading can be a very emotional and stressful way to try and make a living.

But imagine if you could get control of your thoughts and emotions and start to be the boss of your own trading mind? Imagine if you could learn to cut out most of the noise in your life and step back and just look at all the thoughts non-judgmentally? Imagine how easier trading might become? Or imagine losing the fear to lose so that you can become a better trader? The fear that your mind is creating from thoughts… not facts.

Imagine being able to apply the same technique to any other area of your life and gain control of your excessive thinking? Do you thing your life might be better? Imagine starting to fear less and live more? That is what The Untethered Soul is all about.

It’s about help you realise that you are nothing more than the witness to all the thoughts that your mind creates.

And for me, it has really been an eye opener.

It Takes Time but is Soooo Worth it.

Now this isn’t a quick fix that is going to happen over night. But it is something that you can learn to do and use to enhance your life over a few weeks and months.

It isn’t complicated, voodoo, religious, scary, trash talk, a cult or any other type of thing that you won’t agree with.

It’s just about how you can start to gain control of your life and stop your negative self talk by just taking a back seat and watching it all go on.

I found this concept to be very liberating.

Along with my regular meditation [something that you do not need to do to make use of the book] I have found a way to say ‘be quiet brain’.

The Untethered Soul Review

The name of the book might sound a bit new age and hippy for some, but I assure you that anyone and everyone could learn something about themselves from reading it. If you don’t like the sound of the title, then that’s fine, but don’t let that put you off. You might regret it.

You can take a look here on Amazon and read some of the Untethered Soul review.

I really have enjoyed this book and just had to share it with you.

Welcome 2019

Well 2018 turned out to be a nice year. Although on a trading front [for me personally], 2018 was one of my quietest years.

I didn’t trade anywhere near as much as normal. This was a planned decision at the start of the year.

The first reason being I wanted to be on call to answer the emails from my spread betting students and help anyone out with any issue they may have had. This was enjoyable and I connected with some great people in the process.

Also, I wanted to spend some time [lots of time actually] doing my things. And concentrating on my own personal development.

Not having spread betting on my mind enabled me to do this.

Blogging and trading is quite time consuming when combined. So I thought that a quieter year was well and truly overdue.

Basically, a break from spread betting was wanted, needed and taken.

I also needed to concentrate on looking at places abroad that may be suitable to buy a holiday home. This was a main goal for 2018. Although we didn’t find anything to put money into, we researched lots of areas and have now made a shortlist of destinations.

We also managed to get away to a few of these new places. Overall this was all refreshing and nice.

Trading Results

Much of my trading over 2018 was done via Schwab where I buy actual stocks.

The final results for the year are hard to be completely accurate with as seasonal trades do not finish until April; but overall to date just shy of 6% return which whilst not spectacular, are still very respectable compared to the bank. I know other traders didn’t get those returns though.

December absolutely battered the results to be honest. But the last few months from around October accounted for a 11% loss overall. Ouch!

Dogs of the Dow made a very small profit this year which hampered overall results too. If we had gotten the regular 10% + returns, then the picture could have been way stronger. General Electric cost most of the profits this year on the dogs.

So GE is out and JP Morgan in.

You can read about the Dogs of The Dow here

Long Term Game Plan

You have to get it into your head that trading is a long term plan. I could well see my account down 20% some years but up 30% + on others. That is the reality of trading stocks.

So many people hit the bail out button at the first sign of a loss and then never go on to make any money.

They then miss the rewards that the markets can offer long term.

If you bet that the US markets will go up over the next 20 years then you won’t go far wrong. Of course some years will be negative. But as Warren Buffet said…

“For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start.

Spread Betting

2018’s spread betting tended to be me looking at different trading strategies to pass on to you.

I actually didn’t mind doing this, even though I wasn’t concentrating on making profits myself, it felt good to just potter around on IG and CMC Markets. Testing ideas and looking for new ones.

What I am still sure of though, is that the DAX remains the easiest market to trade for short and longer term profits.

You can quite easily open a longer term trade with a view to hold over weeks and months and then trade the shorter term moves alongside on a separate account.

This type of trading can be really effective.

Easy to Get Started

The good thing about spread betting is that your profits and loss are accounted for as you go. That is the whole idea. Cutting your losses and letting your profits run.

This can be far more suitable for many as a lot less capital is required to start up.

It’s how I started out and obviously still trade.

You can trade on CMC markets for .25p a point and still rack the profits up.

275 points profit.

What’s in Store for 2019

I will obviously still be trading at Schwab and Vince Stanzione says that individual stocks will be where the money is. I totally agree.

I will also be concentrating on my spread betting again with a view to trade the DAX consistently throughout the year. I will be posting these ideas/trades up to my private spread betting students.

If you want the chance to join and get my trading system, then make sure you are on the mailing list here. I’ll send you notification. The doors will open in a few weeks and I will let a handful of you in.

Happy Christmas

Here’s wishing everyone a very Happy Christmas and may the new Year bring all of your wishes.

I will do a full update of this last years trading after the first week of January and as promised let a few more students into my trading course.

Whatever you are doing this Christmas, have a good one and enjoy yourselves.

DOW Moves Higher

The DOW Moves Higher

If you had read my post on 26/10/18 I gave you my views on where I thought the DOW might be heading over the coming weeks and months. I said that I expected the DOW to move higher.

This was my own personal analysis from reading the daily charts and taking in to account the midterm elections.

There was no inside information or indicators in use here.

My analysis was mostly based on basic price action.

The DOW had seemed to hit a stubborn support level and I had expected the price to rebound from this level… which it did.

The price then moved up, back down to the support level and back up again, forming what you may call the start of a head and shoulders chart pattern.

You could also add into my trading decision that the seasonality bullishness was also a factor.

Overall though, whether you claim it was price action trade or a combination of factors, it still made for a good trade if you were trading either by spread betting or buying ETF’s via Schwab.

The Dow moves higher

You Don’t Need a Crystal Ball

The main point that you should take from the above example is not that the DOW moves higher… it is that practically anyone can make an informed decision with a good degree of accuracy on which way the market is likely to go, just from applying the simplest of price action theories.

You really don’t need anything other than your support and resistance levels and some basic candle patterns to hand.

You certainly don’t need the news channels or forums to gauge whether the DOW moves higher or lower.

Simple Strategies Work Best

You’ll know from reading my posts that I favour the simplest of trading strategies.

The only indicators I use with any degree of regularity are moving averages and the MACD.

I am not one for reading a chart with dozens of indicators here there and everywhere.

When I’m reading a chart and looking for an entry point, I will often use price alone to make my decision.

Sometimes I’ll use a moving average crossover. Sometimes I’ll use a MACD. And sometimes I’ll use a combination of all three.

But even if I were using all three indicators to make my entry, my chart is still very simple and my strategy clear and basic.

I often stress this point to students that email me asking what I think of this indicator or that indicator… my answer is always/often the same… I have no idea as I have never used them.

Learning to Trade

If you want to learn to trade then you can read some of my trading strategies here, here and here.

My spread betting course is still currently closed to new students. However, I will let a few more in at some stage in January. So if you want to join, please make sure that you are on the waiting list.

Trading Strategies – Don’t be a one Track Pony – Diversify

Trading Strategies

You all know that my trading journey started with Vince Stanzione.

But most of you probably only see Vince as a one track horse so to speak. You see him selling his trading system and assume thats it, that’s all he has to offer. However, that’s totally the wrong picture.

Trading Strategies

You see, successful trading takes more than one approach. You need to diversify your trading strategies so that over time you profit long term.

If and when you are encountering a losing run with one strategy, you’ll often find that another area of your account and portfolio is working absolutely fine with one of your other strategies.

When I really started to make good money [for me] from trading, was when I started to listen to Vince’s advice on using a range of different strategies.

I was no longer tied into just spread betting. I started to trade longer term by buying stock and ETFs. I started to use seasonality strategies and trade the indices more. I learnt other little strategies from Vince  to use that added to my results over time.

My Trading Systems

I also developed my own various trading strategies to use; strategies that suited my shorter term trading fascination.

These strategies were developed so that I could trade in a way that could make extra cash on a monthly basis; rather than waiting months and years to reap my rewards.

In fact, my trading system that I launched and SOLD OUT of this year included four strategies for spread betting the markets. The idea being that you can learn more than the one strategy to maximise your earning potential over time.

I am also going to add another couple of strategies for my students to use before January 2019

Some of the money I make over the short term is reinvested into Vince’s longer term advice. Some is spent enjoying life.

It All Starts with Your First Step

But building up your trading strategy know how and indeed profits, doesn’t start at any other place than at the bottom of your personal ladder.

You’re not going to make it happen by staying stuck on the fence.

You need to take action, learn a handful of strategies over time and then rinse and repeat.

Yes, start with just one strategy. That makes perfect sense. But don’t become a one track pony. There are more than one very profitable ways to trade the markets.

It’s Not Always a Perfect Start

Many people claim that you can’t make money from the stock market. But that is obviously not true.

How is it that people like Vince Stanzione can do it? How can I do it?

Well, the biggest fact is that when we lose money, it is not a crisis where the attitude becomes negative.

New traders that start out trading and lose money go on to fear the markets. Their losing caused pain, albeit emotional, it still hurt.

This loss of money and the ensuing pain was enough to keep them from trading the markets again.

So they now say things like, trading the markets are a waste of time and money. Or, you’ll never make money from  the markets. It’s always something along those lines.

If any of them actually got over the pain of their first losses then they might well have gone onto realising that the losses were all part of the winning game.

To Recap

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Learn one strategy well to start off with, but don’t be shy to add to your trading arsenal.

You probably won’t ever hit the heights of winning trade after trade in your trading career, but that doesn’t mean you’re a failure or that you can’t make money in the markets.

Diversify and look to trade a handful of solid strategies over time.